While the world is already facing the impacts of cuts to official development assistance (ODA), rising rates of hunger and natural disasters, conflict in the Middle East has introduced new pressures that are shaping the social, humanitarian and environmental landscape.
The conflict brings with it the emergence of a new refugee crisis. People are being pushed out of their homes as a result of violence, property loss or failed power grids in Iran, which is already home to millions of Afghan migrants.
GFN network country Türkiye, already one of the largest refugee-hosting countries in the world and still recovering from a crushing earthquake in 2023, will be under increased strain as migrants flee to the Iran-Türkiye border. The EU Agency for Asylum says that even partial destabilization in Iran could create a refugee crisis of an “unprecedented magnitude.”
Meanwhile, the Iran conflict is already disrupting supply chains. According to the Global Cold Chain Alliance, approximately 10% of the global container fleet has been disrupted, so some products in layover may be stuck at ports and some exporters face challenges transporting products to their final destinations. While this may provide an immediate opportunity for food banks to recover food stuck in ports, it brings long-term threats to global food security via shipping delays, increased freight, food, oil and fertilizer prices, as well as smaller margins for food producers and longer-term consequences on planting schedules. While the Middle East is affected immediately, the impacts will be felt globally.
The U.N. World Food Programme estimates that 45 million more people globally could fall into acute food insecurity or worse. Agriculture production, food security and global markets are at risk, according to FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero. These compounding conditions have led many to view 2025 as the most severe humanitarian year on record, and catastrophic effects will be felt for years to come.
Food banks are always on the frontline, meeting the immediate need for food as people experience displacement, job loss or food price spikes, but they also absorb the cascading shocks moving through communities and food systems. Food banks and their member agencies are often the first to feel the pressure of mounting catastrophes, but as the locally led, community-rooted organizations that they are, they are also the last to retreat.
Through regular contact with member food banks, The Global FoodBanking Network (GFN) is closely tracking how current events are shaping operations and programming, ensuring that resources and support are directed where needed most.
On the continent, the food and nutrition crisis in West Africa in particular is worsening, putting households and food banks under strain. The latest Cadré Harmonisé data estimates that 41.8 million people are already experiencing acute food insecurity, and this figure is expected to climb to 52.8 million during the June-August 2026 lean season. More than 1.4 million people are already in emergency conditions in Nigeria and Ghana.
Another emerging risk stems from the severe disruption in global fertilizer markets just as sub‑Saharan Africa enters a critical planting season. Roughly one‑quarter of the world’s fertilizer supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that is now effectively incapacitated, sharply constraining access for import‑dependent countries. GFN countries are dealing with the fuel crisis in multiple different ways: For example, Ghana has raised the price of fuel and South Africa is cutting fuel taxes.
Banque Alimentaire de Cote d’Ivoire (BACI)
ODA funding in the country amounted to the equivalent of 3% of Cote d’Ivoire’s gross national income. Since its founding in 2019, BACI has reached more than 300,000 people in Abidjan and surrounding communities. In a context where food banking is still emerging, BACI is expanding rapidly in part through support and guidance from GFN. BACI joined the second cohort of GFN’s Máy gia tốc in 2024, and within a year nearly doubled distribution and almost tripled the number of people served. GFN has provided technical assistance, peer-to-peer learning and training in addition to new funding to countries hit hardest by ODA cuts, which enabled the purchase of a refrigerated truck and the addition of a new driver, expanding both its operational reach and its long-term sustainability. Future support will go toward hiring a fundraiser and an additional new vehicle.
Food Forward South Africa (FFSA)
Like many other countries, South Africa is facing an economic downturn. The unemployment rate is high, especially youth unemployment at 60%. FFSA receives approximately 60% of its revenue from corporate donors, but local and national corporates are struggling because the economy is struggling and consumer spending is down. The grants landscape has become even more competitive with more nonprofits needing funding.
The loss of PEPFAR funding has endangered health services, so FFSA has stepped up by supporting health clinics that are currently inundated with applications. Foodshare, FFSA’s digital platform, is responsible for the procurement of 22,000 metric tons of food, which accounts for 70% of total annual tonnage distributed. Four of South Africa’s five top retailers are using Foodshare to manage their virtual donations. With a grant from GFN in November 2025, FFSA was able to keep mobile routes that serve remote and rural populations open, a critical component to reaching underserved populations.
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are most vulnerable to war impacts because of their reliance on food and fuel imports. Asia is feeling the shock most acutely, given that nearly every country in the region depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil. GFN countries are coping with rising fuel costs and shortages in multiple ways. It is also the region most exposed to disruptions in oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making price spikes and supply uncertainty especially destabilizing. As India’s large supply of fertilizer is endangered as plants close or reduce output due to high prices of natural gas, the country’s ability to continue as a notable global food producer is in question. According to WFP’s assessment, current projections point to a 24% rise in food‑insecure populations across Asia.
Học giả Sustenance Thái Lan (SOS)
USAID cuts have severely impacted refugee and migrant worker groups mainly located along the Thailand-Myanmar border. As a result, SOS has received an increasing number of direct requests from individuals. In 2026, SOS plans to establish and train representatives in all 27 provinces of Thailand to conduct food recovery with the support of national and provincial government, ultimately expanding the SOS food recovery program to areas serving the migrant and refugee populations.
The Thai government is closely monitoring the fuel shortage situation and has proposed multiple contingency plans, including prioritizing emergency needs (like hospitals), rations and limited operating hours for petrol stations.
According to FAO, undernourishment in Latin America and the Caribbean has declined for four consecutive years, reaching 5.1% of the population in 2024, down from 6.1% in 2020. Despite this progress, regional disparities remain. OECD paints a picture of decelerated economic growth in Latin America in 2026 due to a variety of factors, including inflation, climate-related events and geopolitical tensions.
Banco de Alimentos của Bolivia
To help mitigate current challenges with commercial donors, the food bank is one of six food banks receiving intensive agricultural recovery technical assistance through GFN. Expansion into the area of Santa Cruz is in progress and enabling more agricultural volumes to be recovered. With GFN’s support, the food bank set a goal to recover 150 tons from the agricultural sector across the locations of Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. GFN technical assistance is helping streamline the design and implementation of a new logistics and staffing model to manage farmer relationships and collect food.
Banco de Alimentos El Salvador (BAES)
In El Salvador, 2025 was a year unlike any other: There’s uncertainty and upheaval due not only to USAID cuts but also the country’s political and economic landscape. Although BAES does not receive USAID funds, 35% of their network organizations did receive significant funding, especially organizations working with children, adolescents and young people. As a result, many of them have canceled programs or reduced their budgets.
In the past year, BAES achieved GFN certification after many years of diligent preparation, which has strengthened the food bank’s standing and brand recognition and enhanced trust among partners. GFN certification is a high standard that serves as a letter of introduction and testimonial, especially within the private sector. In 2025, BAES recovered 706,000 kilograms of food and served 46,000 people across 12 of the country’s 14 departments.
GFN sẽ tiếp tục theo dõi và hỗ trợ giải quyết những thách thức mà các ngân hàng thực phẩm đang phải đối mặt. Để tìm hiểu thêm về cách bạn có thể hỗ trợ công việc này, vui lòng liên hệ với Vicki Clarke theo địa chỉ sau: vclarke@foodbanking.org.
